Corona's third wave may come around September-October, IIT Kanpur warns
IIT Kanpur has already warned people about the third wave of Corona. This has been claimed in the study conducted by IIT Kanpur professors Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma with their team
Everyone is troubled by the corona epidemic in the country. The second wave of Corona has shaken people to the core. Now once again, the arrival of the third wave of Corona is predicted. IIT Kanpur has already warned people about the third wave of Corona. In a study conducted by IIT Kanpur professors Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma with their team, it has been claimed that the third wave of corona may come around September-October.
Anticipating the third wave of Corona, these professors said that there is an atmosphere of concern among the people regarding this. For this, using the SIR model, we have prepared three scenarios for a possible third wave based on the parameters of the epidemic during the second wave. Let us assume that India will be fully unlocked by 15th July.
Scenario 1 (Back to Normal): The third wave will be at its peak in October, but will be less dangerous than the second wave.
Scenario-2 (common with virus mutation): Its peak will be higher than the second wave and may come earlier (in September).
Scenario-3 (Strict Restrictions Continued): Following strict physical distancing, the peak of the third wave may be averted by the end of October. Here the peak will be less than the second wave.
Let us inform you that Professor Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma along with their team at IIT Kanpur give the forecast of corona cases coming in India on their website covid19-forecast.org. As per the assessment of the IIT Kanpur team, the second wave has reduced significantly in almost every state except a few northeastern states (Mizoram, Manipur, Sikkim etc.)
The study said that the current positivity rate of the most corona is less than 5 percent but Kerala, Goa, Sikkim and Meghalaya still have more than 10 percent positivity rate. India's average daily number of cases has come down significantly. As of June 19, it is 63,000 compared to a peak of around 4 lakh earlier. The daily test positivity rate (TPR) in most states is less than the WHO recommended level (5%). However, Kerala, Goa, Sikkim, Meghalaya still have a high daily TPR of more than 10 percent.
According to the study, India's daily case fatality rate (CFR) has recently increased to 3.5 percent, but the cumulative CFR of the second wave is equal to that of the first wave. The current model does not include vaccination, the study said, which should significantly reduce the coming wave. He also said that the revised model with vaccination and with the recent data is being studied further.